Article

A Drowning Risk We Do Not Talk About Enough: Overseas-Born Australians

New analysis from Aquatots shows that overseas-born Australians are at a higher risk of drowning. With National Water Safety Day on December 1, 2025, we need to ask: Are we reaching the communities at the highest risk?

Key findings


  • Over the last 20 years, people born overseas have often made up a bigger share of drowning deaths than their share of the population. In the late 2010s, they were about 30% of the population but up to 40% of drowning deaths.

  • In the five years before COVID (2015-16 to 2019-20), overseas-born Australians drowned at a rate about 25% higher than the overall population. This occurred while the national drowning rate improved. It suggests that overseas-born communities did not benefit as much as those born in Australia.

  • From 2005-06 to 2023-24, there were 1,627 drowning deaths among people born overseas - over 30% of all drowning deaths in that period.

  • From 2013-14 to 2022-23, the average annual drowning rate was 1.04 deaths per 100,000 for Australian-born residents. For overseas-born residents, it was 1.30. For Nepal-born people, it was 2.48, and for China-born people, it was 1.98.


Australia loves water, but not everyone is equally safe. Our analysis of 20 years of drowning data shows a clear pattern. People born overseas are often carrying more than their share of the grief.

Chart 1

Chart 1 shows how the picture has changed over time. 


In the mid-2000s, overseas-born residents were about a quarter  of the population. They were also about a quarter  of drowning deaths. 


Over time, that changed. By the late 2010s, people born overseas made up roughly 30%  of Australia’s population. But in some years, they accounted for around 40%  of drowning deaths.


A five-year bracket analysis highlights this shift (2024-25 excluded, overseas-born drowning data is provisional):


  • 2005-06 to 2009-10: overseas-born people were about 27% of drowning deaths.
  • 2010-11 to 2014-15: overseas-born people’s share rose to about 29%.
  • 2015-16 to 2019-20: it jumped to over 36%, more than one in three deaths.
  • 2020-21 to 2023-24: the share sits at about 29%.


This raises an important question. Is this simply due to the growth of the overseas-born population, or are overseas-born Australians actually less safe in the water?


To answer this question, we look at deaths per 100,000 people per year,  the crude annual drowning rate. For much of the last 20 years, the rate for people born overseas has sat above the rate  for the population as a whole (see chart 2).

Chart 2

In the five years before COVID (2015–16 to 2019–20), the drowning rate for overseas-born Australians was about 25% higher than the national average. In some of those years, the ‘extra risk’ climbed close to 40%. 


For most of the period, the risk ratio (shown by the yellow dashed line in Chart 2) is at or above 1.0. This means overseas-born Australians were as likely, and often more likely,  to drown than the average Australian. 


Since COVID, the two lines have moved closer together. Overall drowning has gone up, and the gap between overseas-born and Australian-born has narrowed. But the long-term story is clear; for many years, overseas-born Australians - including many culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities were more likely to die once they entered the water.


The CALD communities cover many different communities. We focused on three large migrant communities: people born in China, India, and Nepal.


In 2005, the Nepal-born population in Australia was about 3,800. By 2024, it was around 197,800, more than 50 times larger. Over the same period, the India-born population grew by more than fivefold,  and the China-born population by more than threefold.


We used ten years of  Royal Life Saving National Fatal Drowning Database Dashboard data (2013-14 to 2022-23) and population figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. We calculated average annual drowning rates per 100,000 people and compared different groups (see chart 3).

Chart 3

Two things stand out from chart 3: 


  • People born in Nepal and China seem to have a higher risk of drowning. This risk is greater than the average for those born overseas and for the Australian-born population. 
  • People born in India have a lower crude rate, but India and Nepal together still account for around seven drowning deaths a year on average.


Across this time period (2013-14 to 2022-23), there were 933 drowning deaths among people born overseas. 181 of these involved people born in China, India, or Nepal, almost one in five overseas-born drowning deaths.

What this means for a drowning-free Australia


This study doesn’t explain all the reasons for the numbers. But it clearly shows that if Australia aims to reduce drowning deaths by half, CALD communities need to be included.


We know that overseas-born Australians face a higher drowning risk, it's time for specific action:


  • Make swimming lessons more affordable and culturally safe.
  • Offer water safety information in multiple languages.
  • Listen to CALD communities about the barriers they face and the support they need.


Recognizing these patterns and admitting the gaps is the first step to real progress. It’s key to a drowning-free nation where no family is left behind.

Methodology & Data Notes


Data Sources


  • NATIONAL DROWNING REPORT, Royal Life Saving Australia, several years
  • Royal Life Saving National Fatal Drowning Database Dashboard
  • 34090DO001_2024 Australia's population by country of birth 2024, Estimated resident population by country of birth - as at 30 June, 1996 to 2024, Released at 11:30 am (Canberra time) 30 April 2025, Australian Bureau of Statistics
  • A 10 YEAR NATIONAL STUDY OF OVERSEAS BORN DROWNING DEATHS, 2005/06 to 2014/15, Royal Life Saving Australia
  • Drowning Among Multicultural Communities in Australia, AN UPDATE: 2013/14 TO 2022/23, Royal Life Saving Australia


Formula


  • Crude drowning rate 

       (raw death count in the year/population of the year) * 100,000

  • Risk Ratio

       Overseas-born drowning rate​/Australian-born drowning rate

       A value above 1 means overseas-born Australians face higher drowning risk.


Note


  • 'Overseas-born' is not the same as 'CALD', our analysis focuses on country of birth
  • We used the Royal Life Saving National Fatal Drowning Database Dashboard to analyse the annual total drowning death counts. The dashboard reports 316 deaths for the 2023-24 period. National Drowning Report 2024, Royal Life Saving Australia shows 323. The difference does not affect any trend or conclusion in the analysis.

Using our work


Aquatots Research & Data Team's work is meant to be shared and used widely. You do not need to seek our permission to reuse our article, charts, data, you just need to provide credit - http://www.aquatots.com.au/a-drowning-risk-we-do-not-talk-about-enough:-overseas-born-australians

About Aquatots

Key takeaways at a glance

Is My Child Ready for the School-Aged Advanced Swim Program?

Table of Contents:

  • Is My Child Ready for the School-Aged Advanced Swim Program?
  • The gap between “can swim” and “safe swimmer”
  • What “advanced” actually means
  • Physical signs your child is ready
  • The emotional and mental side
  • Red flags that say “not yet”
  • Why school programs aren’t enough
  • The bottom line

You've watched your kid splash through beginner classes. They can do a decent freestyle lap. Maybe they've even earned a certificate or two. When the swim school talks about their "advanced program," you might think: is my child really ready?

It's a bigger question than most parents realise. And getting it wrong in either direction can set your child back.


The gap between "can swim" and "safe swimmer"

Here's a stat that should make every Australian parent pay attention. Nearly half of Year 6 students cannot swim 50 metres and tread water for 2 minutes [UNSW]. That's the national benchmark for 12-year-olds. And it gets worse as kids get older. By ages 15-16, 84% of teenagers can't meet their age-appropriate swimming benchmark [RoyalLifeSaving].


Why? Because 75% of children stop swimming lessons before age 9 [AusLeisure]. Long before they've developed genuine water safety skills.


When we discuss if your child is ready for advanced swimming, we’re really asking: are they on track to be a safe swimmer? Or are they about to join the majority who quit too early?

An adult male swim instructor supporting a young child in the water, teaching essential swimming skills for overall safety.

What "advanced" actually means

The National Swimming and Water Safety Framework has three stages for swimming development:


  • Fundamental (beginner)


  • Acquisition (intermediate)


  • Application (advanced)


Your child's current level probably sits somewhere in the first two stages. Fundamental swimmers are building water confidence and learning basics. They can swim about 5 metres, float, and recover to standing [RoyalLifeSaving]. Acquisition swimmers are increasing their distances. They’re also learning different strokes and aiming for the important 50-metre benchmark, along with 2 minutes of treading water [RoyalLifeSaving].


Advanced swimmers operate at a different level entirely. We're looking at 100 to 400 metres of swimming, 5 minutes of treading water, deep water rescue skills, and survival tasks in heavy clothing [RoyalLifeSaving]. These kids are prepared for real-world water environments, not just pool conditions.


Knowing where your child stands on this spectrum helps you see if they are ready to move forward or if they need more time to solidify their current skills.

Physical signs your child is ready

AUSTSWIM identifies specific physical markers that separate genuine readiness from parent optimism. And yes, there's often a gap between what we hope our kids can do and what they can actually do safely.


Look for coordinated propulsion. This is when arms and legs move together purposefully, not just splashing randomly. Aim for controlled kicks with less splashing. This shows skill mastery, not just effort. Can your child float on their own for 10 to 20 seconds without reaching for anything? Can they transition smoothly from horizontal to vertical in the water?


Breath control matters enormously. A child ready to advance can put their face underwater without feeling scared. They can get in and out of the pool without help. Advanced-ready children also show confidence and comfort in deep water, not just in the shallow end.


Most kids have the skills for formal swimming lessons by age 4. They can usually master front crawl by ages 5 to 6 [BlueWaveSwim]. But here's the crucial point: age is not the primary indicator. AUSTSWIM highlights that readiness means being willing and prepared, not just based on a child's age [AUSTSWIM].


Your 7-year-old might be ready when your neighbour's 9-year-old isn't. Every child progresses differently.

A mom showing her kids on the proper ways to swim.

The emotional and mental side

Physical capability alone doesn't cut it. A child may be strong and coordinated enough for advanced swimming. However, they might not be emotionally or mentally ready to move forward safely.


Emotionally ready kids jump into the water without their parents. They are eager before lessons and bounce back quickly from small setbacks. They stay calm during floating activities and handle water on their face without panic. You’ll see them showing pride in their achievements and wanting to go back to the pool.


Cognitive readiness means understanding and following multi-step instructions. It also involves processing technique corrections and being aware of safety rules. Research shows that children aged 6 and older gain the most from complex instruction. In contrast, younger children require simpler and more direct guidance.

Red flags that say "not yet"

Sometimes, the key skill is knowing when your child needs extra time at their current level.


Watch for persistent distress throughout lessons, not just initial nerves. Physical anxiety symptoms, such as shivering in warm water, clenched fists, or erratic behaviour, indicate issues. If your child struggles with new levels, it may mean skill regression. This is an important sign to pay attention to.


Struggling to follow directions or focus in lessons shows they may not be ready to advance. Fear responses, such as widened eyes, dilated pupils, and a racing heart, often signal anxiety rather than just exertion. These are clear warning signs.


Surprisingly, research shows that 19% of negative aquatic experiences happen during swimming lessons. This often occurs when individuals are pushed beyond their comfort zones [PMC.NCBI]. Children with these negative experiences recorded lower average achievement at every age.



Pushing too fast backfires. Every time.

Why school programs aren't enough

If your child does swimming at school, that's great. But it's probably not enough.


Research shows children need ongoing weekly instruction to maintain and develop skills [UTAS]. Victoria provides the most thorough approach, but school programs still focus on basic survival skills and safety awareness. They usually don’t cover advanced stroke technique, swimming longer than 50 metres, or ongoing skill improvement.


University of Tasmania research confirms children attending regular weekly lessons at private swim schools are more likely to reach national benchmarks by ages 9-10 [UTAS].



School programs fill gaps. They don't replace consistent swimming education.


The bottom line

A close up of a child learning how to swim

Deciding if your child is ready for advanced swimming means considering everything. Physical markers like coordinated strokes, independent floating, and breath control. Emotional signs like confidence without anxiety. Cognitive indicators like following instructions and understanding safety rules.


But equally important is recognising when your child needs more time. Skill regression, ongoing distress, and anxiety show that pressure to advance should pause.


Swimming skills develop in cycles. Children gain skills, then plateau, then gain skills, then plateau. That's normal. The goal isn't rushing to the next level. It's building a genuinely safe swimmer who can handle real-world water environments.


Remember, the shift from parent-child classes to teacher-led instruction can take up to six months. It all depends on individual readiness. There's no prize for speed. Only for getting there safely.

Frequently asked questions

  • At what age should a child start advanced swimming lessons?

    While most children master basic strokes by ages 5 to 6, readiness for advanced swimming is based on skill, not age. Some children may be ready at 7, while others need until age 9 or 10. The key is physical coordination and the emotional maturity to follow complex instructions.

  • My child swims at school. Is that enough to be considered a "safe swimmer"?

    Likely not. Research shows school programs are excellent for basic survival skills but often lack the time to develop advanced stroke technique or endurance (swimming 100m+). Weekly lessons at a private swim school are statistically more likely to help children reach national safety benchmarks.

  • What are the main skills required for an advanced swimming program?

    Advanced readiness generally requires "Acquisition" stage skills: swimming 50 metres continuously, treading water for 2 minutes, and coordinated propulsion (purposeful arm and leg movements with minimal splashing).

  • My child is showing signs of anxiety before lessons. Should I push them to advance?

    No. If your child exhibits persistent distress, physical shivering in warm water, or panic responses, pushing them can cause skill regression. It is often better to pause or remain at the current level until their confidence returns.

  • Why do so many children quit swimming before they are safe?

    Statistics show 75% of children stop lessons before age 9, often because they can swim a lap and parents believe they are "done." However, true water safety—such as treading water for 5 minutes or swimming in heavy clothing—requires training that typically extends beyond the beginner years.

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