Article

A Drowning Risk We Do Not Talk About Enough: Overseas-Born Australians

New analysis from Aquatots shows that overseas-born Australians are at a higher risk of drowning. With National Water Safety Day on December 1, 2025, we need to ask: Are we reaching the communities at the highest risk?

Key findings


  • Over the last 20 years, people born overseas have often made up a bigger share of drowning deaths than their share of the population. In the late 2010s, they were about 30% of the population but up to 40% of drowning deaths.

  • In the five years before COVID (2015-16 to 2019-20), overseas-born Australians drowned at a rate about 25% higher than the overall population. This occurred while the national drowning rate improved. It suggests that overseas-born communities did not benefit as much as those born in Australia.

  • From 2005-06 to 2023-24, there were 1,627 drowning deaths among people born overseas - over 30% of all drowning deaths in that period.

  • From 2013-14 to 2022-23, the average annual drowning rate was 1.04 deaths per 100,000 for Australian-born residents. For overseas-born residents, it was 1.30. For Nepal-born people, it was 2.48, and for China-born people, it was 1.98.


Australia loves water, but not everyone is equally safe. Our analysis of 20 years of drowning data shows a clear pattern. People born overseas are often carrying more than their share of the grief.

Chart 1

Chart 1 shows how the picture has changed over time. 


In the mid-2000s, overseas-born residents were about a quarter  of the population. They were also about a quarter  of drowning deaths. 


Over time, that changed. By the late 2010s, people born overseas made up roughly 30%  of Australia’s population. But in some years, they accounted for around 40%  of drowning deaths.


A five-year bracket analysis highlights this shift (2024-25 excluded, overseas-born drowning data is provisional):


  • 2005-06 to 2009-10: overseas-born people were about 27% of drowning deaths.
  • 2010-11 to 2014-15: overseas-born people’s share rose to about 29%.
  • 2015-16 to 2019-20: it jumped to over 36%, more than one in three deaths.
  • 2020-21 to 2023-24: the share sits at about 29%.


This raises an important question. Is this simply due to the growth of the overseas-born population, or are overseas-born Australians actually less safe in the water?


To answer this question, we look at deaths per 100,000 people per year,  the crude annual drowning rate. For much of the last 20 years, the rate for people born overseas has sat above the rate  for the population as a whole (see chart 2).

Chart 2

In the five years before COVID (2015–16 to 2019–20), the drowning rate for overseas-born Australians was about 25% higher than the national average. In some of those years, the ‘extra risk’ climbed close to 40%. 


For most of the period, the risk ratio (shown by the yellow dashed line in Chart 2) is at or above 1.0. This means overseas-born Australians were as likely, and often more likely,  to drown than the average Australian. 


Since COVID, the two lines have moved closer together. Overall drowning has gone up, and the gap between overseas-born and Australian-born has narrowed. But the long-term story is clear; for many years, overseas-born Australians - including many culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities were more likely to die once they entered the water.


The CALD communities cover many different communities. We focused on three large migrant communities: people born in China, India, and Nepal.


In 2005, the Nepal-born population in Australia was about 3,800. By 2024, it was around 197,800, more than 50 times larger. Over the same period, the India-born population grew by more than fivefold,  and the China-born population by more than threefold.


We used ten years of  Royal Life Saving National Fatal Drowning Database Dashboard data (2013-14 to 2022-23) and population figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. We calculated average annual drowning rates per 100,000 people and compared different groups (see chart 3).

Chart 3

Two things stand out from chart 3: 


  • People born in Nepal and China seem to have a higher risk of drowning. This risk is greater than the average for those born overseas and for the Australian-born population. 
  • People born in India have a lower crude rate, but India and Nepal together still account for around seven drowning deaths a year on average.


Across this time period (2013-14 to 2022-23), there were 933 drowning deaths among people born overseas. 181 of these involved people born in China, India, or Nepal, almost one in five overseas-born drowning deaths.

What this means for a drowning-free Australia


This study doesn’t explain all the reasons for the numbers. But it clearly shows that if Australia aims to reduce drowning deaths by half, CALD communities need to be included.


We know that overseas-born Australians face a higher drowning risk, it's time for specific action:


  • Make swimming lessons more affordable and culturally safe.
  • Offer water safety information in multiple languages.
  • Listen to CALD communities about the barriers they face and the support they need.


Recognizing these patterns and admitting the gaps is the first step to real progress. It’s key to a drowning-free nation where no family is left behind.

Methodology & Data Notes


Data Sources


  • NATIONAL DROWNING REPORT, Royal Life Saving Australia, several years
  • Royal Life Saving National Fatal Drowning Database Dashboard
  • 34090DO001_2024 Australia's population by country of birth 2024, Estimated resident population by country of birth - as at 30 June, 1996 to 2024, Released at 11:30 am (Canberra time) 30 April 2025, Australian Bureau of Statistics
  • A 10 YEAR NATIONAL STUDY OF OVERSEAS BORN DROWNING DEATHS, 2005/06 to 2014/15, Royal Life Saving Australia
  • Drowning Among Multicultural Communities in Australia, AN UPDATE: 2013/14 TO 2022/23, Royal Life Saving Australia


Formula


  • Crude drowning rate 

       (raw death count in the year/population of the year) * 100,000

  • Risk Ratio

       Overseas-born drowning rate​/Australian-born drowning rate

       A value above 1 means overseas-born Australians face higher drowning risk.


Note


  • 'Overseas-born' is not the same as 'CALD', our analysis focuses on country of birth
  • We used the Royal Life Saving National Fatal Drowning Database Dashboard to analyse the annual total drowning death counts. The dashboard reports 316 deaths for the 2023-24 period. National Drowning Report 2024, Royal Life Saving Australia shows 323. The difference does not affect any trend or conclusion in the analysis.

Using our work


Aquatots Research & Data Team's work is meant to be shared and used widely. You do not need to seek our permission to reuse our article, charts, data, you just need to provide credit - http://www.aquatots.com.au/a-drowning-risk-we-do-not-talk-about-enough:-overseas-born-australians

About Aquatots

Key takeaways at a glance

18mth-2years +

Living with a 2 year old can be challenging enough let alone trying to get them to do what you want when you want them too in the allocated 30 minute time-slot that is their swim lesson. Teaching swimming since 1998 has allowed me to study the characteristics of the different age groups, their progression in swimming and how their physical and mental development can play a part in this. One of these changes occurs around the age of 2. Your child will become difficult to handle and sometimes seem like they are not being compliant or even willing to participate.


When the change will occur?

One of the major changes in your child's development both in swimming and in life will occur around the age of 2 years. Although if your child has started swimming under the age of 6 months this development stage may occur around 18 months. Babies that begin their aquatic activities at an early age are usually ahead in mental and physical development. We call this the sneak attack and it can catch parents off guard.

Understanding What To Look For

When swimming with your 2 or almost 2 year old it is very important that you understand the mental development your child is going through at this stage. Around this age your babies brain is developing so quickly their emotions and bodies have trouble keeping up. Children around this age will start to develop a sense of consequence; they are now starting to understand there is a reaction for every action. Before this age the understanding of a reaction is usually not present and they are quiet happy to jump off things and try activities that can seem daring or crazy (seem to have no fear). Children are only born with 2 fears, the fear of falling and a fear of loud noises all other fears are learnt and usually come into play around the age of 2. Sometimes your child will show their fear by saying or acting like they do not like their swimming.


If your child has hit this stage in their lesson you will notice that they are less willing to try things that may cause harm or they do not have full control over. This is mainly evident when your child goes to jump in from the wall, where they used to do this quiet easily and without prompting they now hesitate and ask for help or even stop, sit to slide in. Another example would be using equipment that makes your child feel unsteady (floatation devises or standing on mats). They may start to refuse to participate or say that they want to do something else other than what is being asked. You will know your child has hit this stage when they start to ask for your help doing activities they used to do easily by themselves. Asking for help does not have to be verbal you will be able to tell by their body language and their facial expressions. Sometimes just a light touch or holding of one finger for a while may be all they need. Talk them through what you are going to do to help them and then ensure you do as you say you will for a quick progression back to comfort.


Tips on how to deal with the stage

During this stage it is extremely important that you do not mistake this behaviour for being naughty defiant. You must always support and never force. To support your child through this phase and ensure they get over it quickly take a few steps back for a couple of weeks. Make the jumps smaller or allow them to sit for a bit to regain their confidence and then move back to standing. During this stage children can also act as if they do not like their swimming any more. Remember that children will cut of their nose to spite their face to push the limits or they may just be frightened and this is the way they are showing you or trying to communicate this to you. Use toys to distract from their brain working over time thinking of what may happen. If they want to get to a toy they will usually give it a go to get there or get the reward.


It is also vital to do what you say you must never ever trick your child into doing something when they are in this stage of development; this can cause a break in trust and will make the phase last for a lot longer. Give your child time to regain the confidence in their own ability and you will find their progression will start to take off once again.


Children this age learn through play so allow them to explore their surroundings and try things on their own. Be there for support but ensure you do not do these things for them if they feel they can achieve it on their own. Try not to argue with your child, remember your lesson is only 30 minutes and it is extremely hard to win a power struggle in that time. Instead compromise “if you do this we can do this the 2nd this is usually something they want to do). There is never any issue with using the toys and props to encourage your child to participate and do what you want when you want them to.

For your child's swimming progression it will be extremely important that you help them through this stage as this is also the age when the brain starts to cull pathways that are not being used or practiced.


Surprisingly, the brain of a 2-year-old has trillions of connections double the number that an adult has! The brain grows connections in response to all kinds of input in order to be adaptable and survive. Over time, certain connections are used again and again while others fall by the wayside.


This normal process, called
neural pruning, explains why it's easiest for a child to learn the precise accent of a language while very young. If the brain isn't exposed to that language regularly, certain synapses wither away and the brain is no longer able to hear or form certain sounds as easily. Stopping at this stage causes the vital swimming skills they have mastered to regress and upon return they will be back to square one.

Neural pruning also explains why routine and repetition are so important to a young child. They facilitate learning and help the brain understand what's important. So to avoid the pathways for swimming, movement and comfort in the water to be 'pruned' continuation of practice is required even though they have hit a minor bump in the road. You will find if you just pull back but continue to relax and have fun in the water your little cherub will be back to the level they where before they hit this stage in no time.


Hopefully this article will help you understand this is a normal stage that all children will go through. For personal tips on how to guide your little one through please feel free to ask your friendly instructor or supervisor on deck.



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